High School Graduates to Peak in 2025, With Slightly Deeper-Than-Expected Declines Ahead

Higher Ed Dive

Ben Unglesbee

December 11, 2024

Dive Brief:

• The anticipated decline in the population of high school graduates over the next 15 or so years will be slightly bigger than previously projected, according to the latest forecast by Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education.

• Nationally, high school graduates will peak between 3.8 million and 3.9 million in 2025 and eventually decline to about 3.4 million by 2041, a drop of about 10.3%. Just by 2030, WICHE projects the pool of high school graduates will shrink by 3.1%. Graduates will increase in just 12 states — mostly in the South — and the District of Columbia by 2041, while they will decline in the rest of the U.S.

• Although often referred to as a demographic cliff, WICHE’s projections show “a slower and steadier decline” than the metaphor suggests, giving policy makers and institutions some time to respond, the authors note. It also pointed out that efforts such as boosting the college-going rate of high school graduates could offset the drop.

Dive Insight:

WICHE’s latest edition of “Knocking at the College Door” adds new detail, estimates and nuance to trends that the higher education sector has spent years bracing for.

“While the news may not come as a surprise, the fact that the moment we have all been expecting is now upon us can be jarring,” the authors wrote. “And the trends that we expected have been compounded by an unexpected pandemic, changing the context in which we now exist.”

WICHE’s forecasts are drawn from birth data, enrollment figures for first through 12th grades and the numbers of high school graduates in each state.

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