The coming decline in high school graduate counts, in 5 charts

Higher Ed Dive

Ben Unglesbee

January 27, 2025

Since 1979, the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education has studied demographic trends and projected the number and makeup of future high school graduates and possible cohorts of college enrollees.

Estimating future numbers of high school graduates is an important exercise. Projections are just that, and their certainty declines with how far into the future one looks. But prognostication can help policymakers and college leaders with resource management. Administrators also need a sense of the cultural and geographic makeup of their potential college student bodies to better serve them.

WICHE released its latest edition of “Knocking at the College Door” in December. In it, the report’s authors predicted that this year will represent a peak in high school graduates. After 2025 comes a long-anticipated decline.

WICHE looked closely at how high school graduate numbers and makeup will vary over the coming years. Here is a deeper look at some of the data and forecasts that examine changes to the pipeline of traditional-age college students.

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